Margin & Break-even Calculator
Trace one order dollar from the price on the page to the money you keep, then see the most you can pay to acquire a customer.
The interactive companion to the playbook The Money You Actually Keep.
Physical products, shipping, returns.
- Cost to acquire (CPA)
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- Max bid per click
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- New orders / mo
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- Contribution / mo
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- Profit after ad spend / mo
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- Avg lifetime
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- Lifetime value (LTV)
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- LTV : CAC
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- Payback period
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Set a target and Solve. The calculator works backwards to the smallest change on each lever, then one tap applies it.
- Net revenue (AOV, ex-tax)
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- Cost of goods
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- Variable selling cost
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- – of which percentage fees
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- – of which fixed fees
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- Contribution margin (pre-refund)
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- Refund leak
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- True contribution margin
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What most calculators get wrong
- Refunds taken off revenue, not margin. A refund doesn’t just hand back the sale price; it removes the contribution you would have kept, and you usually eat the selling costs anyway. Applying the refund rate to revenue understates the real damage.
- Returned goods treated as fully recoverable. A returned unit is rarely 100% resellable. Counting full recovery quietly flatters cost of goods on every refunded order.
- Stopping at gross margin. Gross margin ignores percentage and fixed selling fees and the refund leak. The number that decides what you can spend to acquire a customer is the contribution you actually keep.
This one is cash-flow-correct instead. Cash-flow-correct margin: a refund loses the sale and the selling costs, and returns goods only to the resellable extent. The Universal Margin (research), Christopher White